Last night, Todd Akin started out in the lead and held on to it throughout the night:

Rep. Todd Akin, who played up his tea party credentials and conservative appeal, broke out from a three-way Missouri Republican primary on Tuesday to earn the right to take on Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill, setting up one of the most closely watched Senate races of 2012.

Akin won a contest defined by which candidate was the most conservative. In doing so, he beat out Sarah Palin’s candidate of choice, former state treasurer Sarah Steelman, and John Brunner, a businessman who poured more than $7.5 million of his own money into the race.

I watched exactly one debate between the three of them.  When it was done, I felt Akin did the best, followed by Brunner and then Steelman.  That’s how they finished this race.

All three lead Claire McCaskill, but Akin had the smallest lead.  He has a good organization already built in Missouri.  He should be able to run an effective campaign against her.